FPL: Navigating GW 1
A guide on how to use general heuristics to tackle uncertainty while building your team
Pre-season is a funny period: multiple drafts, knee-jerk reaction after every preseason game, meaningless correlation analyses, hoping Martial proves his doubters wrong, and predicting who Pep starts against West Ham.
There is a lot of information but little insight. I propose a non-predictive framework that will cut through the noise, and give you an edge over those lulled by data.
The General
Things are the most uncertain in the FPL world during the beginning of the season. The core ideas around building your first team are to manage hidden risks, relax strong priors on player performance, and stay flexible to capitalize on randomness.
To that aim, here are some general heuristics to apply.
Breaking the peloton
You can’t win the league by GW 5, but you can lose it
There is a familiar comfort in staying with the crowd. In FPL jargon, this is known as copying the template. It’s not, however, just about safety in numbers. The goal of the game is to get more points than the other guy, not just get more points for its own sake. Ask any Liverpool fan, and they will tell you that they’d rather finish first with 80 points rather than finish second with 97.
You must know when to breakaway, and when not to breakaway from the herd. So, in the beginning of the season, overall ownership should be a huge consideration. As a rule of thumb, you will need around 3 of the top 5 owned players, and 6 of the top 15 owned players.
Again, this is not because the crowd is smart (in fact, it is almost always the opposite). But rather, it makes you indifferent to randomness, and keeps you in the race regardless of the outcome. You don’t want to play catchup from GW2.
Flexibility is king
He who doesn’t bend, breaks
Despite what the predictive models tell you, nothing is set in stone during the beginning of the season. Teams are trying out different formations, new players are adapting to new roles, players are infighting to solidify their positions, new managers are imposing their philosophy with the players he’s got to work with (not even Cruyff can play total football with a McFred double pivot).
The goal then is to stay flexible and create room for maneuver. Which premium assets to captain, who is going to be this season’s Bowen, and who is going to be this seasons’s Bruno, is having a 5.5 keeper the new meta, is it viable to have 4 premium defenders: the answer to these questions are dynamic, and only time will reveal them. So, the idea is to be non-predictive and remain flexible enough to jump on the right bandwagons.
Wildcard as optionality
Love me some randomness
I don’t like the strategy of building a team to play an early wildcard as it leaves you exposed to hidden risks.
Take this hypothetical scenario: the bad blood between Barcelona and Chelsea further escalates. Barca pull more levers and sign all the Chelsea players, leaving them with only Kepa at goal. Now if you have a wildcard, you would actually encourage this situation (and not just because you find Chelsea’s existence as a club to be a contradiction). You can capitalize on this situation with a get-out-out-jail-free card whereas the early wildcard players are scrambling and taking hits.
Here’s a more realistic scenario. It’s GW 3, and your team looks like a hospital ward. Or, say your star player throws a fuss and is in contact with Laporta to engineer a move to Barca (a move that would make Sol Campbell look like a saint and cause a scarcity of pig heads in Madrid)
Keeping your WC in stock means you are protected. You don’t have to predict when disaster will strike (for it will come one day). You are always protected as you have the option to play it whenever you need it the most!
Value of Team Value
Value of team value decreases in subsequent gameweeks
It is essential to build your team value in the early stages of the season. The idea of Time Value of Money is a simple one but important: a sum of money is worth more now than the same sum will be at a future date due to its earning potentials in the interim1
Chasing team value should be an important factor as you build out your team. It is worthwhile to take hits to protect yourself from a value drop (unless you really, really believe your guy is going through a nasty run of bad luck).
[Identify competition]
Who are you trying to impress?
This is a somewhat tangential point as it will mostly apply during the second half of the season. The idea here is to understand which game you are playing to win. Are you trying to win your mini-league for bragging rights (and perhaps a decent pot that will get you more than a bag of chips), or are you going for the spectacular, trying to get into that much coveted sub10K spot?
The optimal strategy for those 2 situations might be completely different, and it helps to know where you are aiming before you shoot.
The Particular
I will point out some key considerations made using the application of the general heuristics while building out my own team.
Is it viable to go Salah-less?
As much as it pains me to say this, betting against Salah is a fool’s errand. Salah has been the top scorer for 4 FPL seasons in a row. His effective ownership will surely be over 100%, leaving you to break the peloton in the wrong direction if you bet against him. Plus, having Salah offers you flexibility. It is much easier to go from Salah → Son or Salah → KdB than the other way around. Flexibility is king!
What formation to play?
Unless you have a very strong reason, you should start out with 4-4-2. There is a nice symmetry to this formation: it allows you to have a bench fodder from every position. This will leave you covered in case of a no-show from every position. It allows you to switch between premiums in a few moves: your money is not locked in one position and short on the other.
How many premiums should I have?
You should have 2 premiums (players of value 10+) – exactly 2, no more and no less. One of the premium should be a midfielder, and the other should be a striker. This offers the most flexibility to swap between other premiums. The choice of the premiums you end up with for GW 1 is not as important as you think. (Just flip a coin and choose one of Halland or Kane)
Any money in the bank?
I am a big fan of 1 in-the-bank strategy. It is a great strategy for quick error correction. With 1 ITB, you can easily jump on bandwagons to chase value, switch into rising stars without selling template players (or taking massive hits), and cap your differentials as a 1 GW punt rather than a bondage till eternity.
For example, it is risky to go with all of Trippier, Martinelli, Dalot and Grealish. They offer massive potential but are punts nonetheless. With 1 ITB, you always have the option of going Trippier → Chilwell, Grealish → Saka/Mount, Dalot → Zincheko or Martinelli → Rashford. This allows you to chase the benefit of the upside while capping your downside.
Secondly, the high ownership of Gabriel Jesus means that you must have him in your team. But, there’s a risk of a quick drop in his value (he is the Brazilian Heskey and will share minutes with Nketiah). With 1 ITB, you can go from Jesus → Darwin, even if Darwin is half the player Liverpool fans think he is. You don’t have to predict what will actually happen in GW1 – regardless of the outcome, you are covered.
Allison and Ederson
While both of these Brazilian keepers are excellent choices by themselves (and all your points per million stats, VAPM, xCleanSheets corroborate), you cannot have them in your team.
These keepers will surely score 150+ points by the end of the season. The reason for avoiding them is not their lack of brilliance, but the opportunity cost of missing out on an out-field player from Liverpool or City. 3 outfield players from Liverpool and City can easily prove to be essential by GW 3. Here, you want to protect yourself from the hidden risk of missing out on a potential template.
Besides, compared to outfield players, the variance and ceiling in point distribution for keepers are comparatively low: you (mostly) know what you are getting. So any of Mendy, Lloris, Ramsdale, Raya, Meslier, Så or Sanchez is fine to start with.
What about these new signing?
Extrapolation of models from outer leagues seldom translate well to the Premier League. It takes time for new players to gel, and it is risky to bet on new players without seeing them kick a ball in a new league. Moreover, there is a risk of players being eased in as opposed to being guaranteed starters.
Unless a high ownership forces your hand, stay away and keep a keen eye on them.
Team Reveal
Good luck for the seasono!
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/timevalueofmoney.asp